When to declare successful eradication of an invasive predator?

Abstract

Imperfect detection methods make it difficult to tell whether an invasive species has been successfully eradicated. However, management cannot continue indefinitely when individuals are no longer detected - at some point, efforts must be reduced or ceased entirely. The risks of mistakenly inferring that an eradication attempt has been successful can be high: the species can bounce back and even expand its range, causing environmental and economic damage, and rendering the initial eradication campaign redundant. This decision problem, balancing the risks of declaring eradication prematurely with the costs of continued management, is currently being contemplated by managers of the fox eradicat..